Predictions on Google's generative AI

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Google’s Search Generative experience has been live for nearly 3 weeks, and while the feedback on its utility has been mixed, I don’t think there’s any chance that there isn’t going to be a full rollout to all Google searchers logged-in and logged-out soon - possibly even before the end of the summer. ChatGPT continues to improve its functionality and utility at finding information, however, its popularity still remains with early technology adopters.

Google needs to ensure that the first time most of the world experiences generative AI, it is with Google and not ChatGPT. In my opinion, generative AI alone will not disrupt search due to how it works (see last week’s newsletter for a deeper explanation), but a ChatGPT product with embedded search from Bing is a very serious threat to Google’s dominance. If ChatGPT becomes the default first click where users go to find information, they will eventually stop going to Google.

At launch, Google put generative AI on nearly all the queries I tried. They even put it on terms that would cost short-term revenue with the removal of ads. Ultimately, they will find that they need to give up some revenue if they want maximum visibility on their generative product, but this is only until they figure out an ads product that meshes with generative results.

What I have learned from multiple sources is that this is not something they have solved - yet, but they will in due time. Either way, the launch of generative responses to their entire user base cannot wait because every day they are not showing the world what they have in the LLM (Large Language Model) arena is another day a new user could be introduced to LLM via ChatGPT.

What will Google do?

Here’s where I think Google’s generative experience ultimately ends up, this is purely an opinion, but prudent marketers should come up with their own opinions and strategies to adapt.

1. Generative responses will be automatically populated on anything that begins with a question. The responses may be inaccurate, and Google will have a strong disclaimer to this effect. However, I don’t believe the inaccuracy is a challenge to its deployment since the alternative to an auto-generated response are UGC websites and maybe FAQ’s on brand sites.
   
   In either case, those also have accuracy issues. Any site that used Q&A as a shortcut for long-tail SEO visibility will find that their traffic will be impacted - potentially fatally. There will still be room for sites like Quora, Reddit and JustAnswer, but generative AI will cut out the middle layer of a user reading content on the web to then write content on those websites. In the same way a Redditor summarizes the sum of their knowledge into a comment, generative AI can do the very same.
   

2. Brand queries will have the option to generate responses but it won’t happen automatically. Right now, I am seeing generative on some brand queries while on others it’s only an option. I think there will eventually be a backlash as to how Google summarizes brands in generative AI especially when the brand is wrong which will make it less worthwhile for Google to bother. A brand query is a high-intent search that should just be going to the brand site’s anyway, so Google will probably just leave it alone.
   

   

   
   

3. Shopping queries currently bring up generative responses. If this remains as it is, I think it destroys a lot of affiliate sites and potentially changes top-of-funnel traffic acquisition for many e-commerce sites. In my opinion, the generative responses aren’t great and will not be appreciated by most users. Additionally, there’s an antitrust component where the recommended products bring up Google’s product pages that could have ads.
   

   

   
   
   I think Google will dial this back a bit and only show generative on very broad shopping queries and not on specific shopping terms. Either way, affiliates should adapt their traffic acquisition models for a new reality.
   

4. Navigational queries also show generative responses at times, but these will probably also disappear. Here’s an example of an odd response for a navigational query that doesn’t add any value.

   

5. Local searches have already been disrupted by Google My Business, and it seems that Google is using generative responses to disrupt it even more. This is one area of SEO that is going to be sufficiently harder in the future as generative responses will become the editorial solution that this space did not already have. Currently, the generative responses could use some improvement, but I am certain that they will get better.
   

6. Comparisons between two objects or brands have been traditionally a popular tactic for sites to tap into the lower funnel or mid-funnel search intent, however, this will no longer be the case. This is something that generative can do just as well as any copywriter and while there could be accuracy issues, users can always continue their research by clicking search results.
   

   
   

7. Quick snippets of data like times, currency calculations, facts, and figures have already been dominated by Google’s knowledge graph, and generative AI takes this even further. Now queries like distance from point A to B, popular locations with x hours, or holiday practices - not just dates can be answered by Google. Websites that aggregate information that was freely available in data sets will have to pivot to something more specific to their users.
   

8. Website “sources” will continue to be shown in generative responses so Google can avoid claims of plagiarism and replacing of search, but I haven’t found them to be that helpful. I imagine Google figures out how to remove them so an early idea around determining how to optimize showing up in those boxes will not be relevant.

This list is not exhaustive and I will do a part 3 as soon as I see more changes.

As always thank you to everyone who reads and shares feedback on my newsletter!

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