SEO (and marketing) predictions for 2025
So much happened in 2024 that it’s hard to comprehend that it was just a single year.
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2024 was a monumental year for Google and search overall. So much happened that it’s hard to comprehend that it was just a single year.
AI became the topic of conversation at the end of 2022 with the launch of ChatGPT, but 2024 was the year that AI became mainstream. That reality led to several significant changes that, while not specifically AI, had a massive impact on how search impacted publishers and users.
First, the direct SEO AI events (and if I left any out, please reply):
After teasing AI search answers in an opt-in beta called SGE, Google formally launched AI Overviews worldwide. While I initially predicted a massive change in clicks to many websites, the results were somewhat muted because Google didn’t put AI Overviews on every possible search.
I have seen some sites highly impacted by a change in search traffic; many sites have dodged that bullet for now. (In my predictions last year, I thought there would be a bloodbath, and I shared more about this failed prediction in my podcast with Lenny Rachitsky.)OpenAI launched SearchGPT, which was officially launched to everyone recently.
Perplexity continued to use its large funding cash haul to challenge Google’s dominance. It has earned accolades from many sectors for its impressive search product, and many think it is a credible alternative to Google.
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The non-AI events were equally momentous for SEO too:
The court declared Google a monopolist after the DOJ charged them with antitrust violations.
Google partnered with Reddit to ingest a firehose of Reddit content featured in search results.
Google launched multiple variations of helpful content updates and core algorithm updates to flush low-quality results out of the index at a scale they have not done in many years.
Google launched the site reputation abuse update to finally rid search results of sites that used their brand authority to generate visibility on search results outside their core offerings.
Predictions for 2025
Here’s what I think will happen in 2025:
Google’s understanding of the Internet will explode with AI
Using some of the capabilities that the public can use in NotebookLM, I think Google will use this tool to ingest far more of the web and make it accessible to users. Search results are primarily based on text matching a user's search. If a user searches for Southeast Asian backpacking travel ideas in English, Google will surface the results of sites written about this topic in English.
Suppose a website has written about this topic in another language and used machine (or human) translation. That content might also be eligible to be shown in the search results, but it likely will be ranked lower due to content and authority scoring.
Videos and images could come up for this search query, but again, they would only be shown in English search results if the English captions and titles on that content were deemed relevant matches to the query.
Using NotebookLM technology, Google can and will ingest the entire web to give the best possible results—possible in an AI Overview. Thus, information that was previously inaccessible to the user because it was not in the correct language, format, or SEO-optimized will now be in the answer set alongside the current content.
This result will be beneficial when the queries are more obscure or niche. Think about how useful this might be for someone conducting a medical search who now has the entire global information repository available to satisfy their query. This will be amazing for users but not so exciting for SEO competition. Whereas today, a site only has to compete with its natural competitors, it will now have to contend with every single source of information on this topic.
Google rolls out of a massive updateGoogle claimed their spam update impacted 45% of all results in April. Given the scale of low-quality content now being pumped out on the Internet; Google will be forced to play an even stronger defense. They view their algo updates as whack-a-mole with spam, and I think in 2025, we will see an update that might fundamentally impact 80%+ of results. This would have significant downstream effects on most sites' current makeup of organic traffic.
Personalization comes backGoogle Discover, the stream of stories in the Google app, is an area of SEO that many websites see traffic from but find challenging to optimize other than producing good content. Google Discover will benefit from the AI personalization I have heard murmurs that Google is currently building. More sites will see Discover traffic, and there will likely be more personalization in traditional search results/AI Overviews.
Anti-trust actions end
The DOJ is asking the court to force Google to divest Chrome. While this will not solve Google’s monopoly, at least the court is trying. With the change of administration, the DOJ will also be changing leadership. I think the Trump administration will drop the antitrust efforts, and the only way the search monopoly will be broken is if a competitor can create a new paradigm of search and discovery.
Goodbye TikTok
TikTok will be formally banned, and it will exit the US market. The TikTok ban was passed by Congress and signed by President Biden earlier this year. The ban was intended to force TikTok to sell itself to a new company, but rather than comply, they tried to stop the ban through the courts. This effort has failed, and the only thing that can save them is President Trump or the Supreme Court. I think both efforts will fail, forcing them to exit. This will strengthen Meta and YouTube but also force out a potential competitor to Google search as many people use TikTok for content discovery.
SEO demand will explode
My final prediction is that the demand for SEO will soar. The volatility in search results will incredibly impact acquisition efforts and revenue of nearly every website. Some companies will lose a tremendous amount of revenue, and they will be desperate to solve those issues. At the opposite end of the spectrum, there will be websites that see a boon in traffic and seek SEO guidance to keep growing.
Relative to demand, there is a tight limit on how many experienced SEO professionals are available to work on these projects, and I think demand will outpace supply.
This means salaries and consulting rates will climb, so if you have these SEO skills, get ready.
Message me if I can help find a new hire or a new role!
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