TikTok is about to be banned in the US
Barring a Supreme Court surprise or President-Elect Trump offering a lifeline to ByteDance, on Jan 19th, Apple and Google will need to remove TikTok from their app stores.
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Barring a Supreme Court surprise or President-Elect Trump offering a lifeline to ByteDance, on Jan 19th, Apple and Google will need to remove TikTok from their app stores. In most of my conversations on this topic, many people seem unaware that this could happen and will happen. I am making it the topic of this week’s newsletter as it has enormous implications for marketing and advertising.
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My opinion on these possibilities
It is unlikely that the current conservative makeup of the Supreme Court would reverse the opinions of all lower courts and against a vast majority of Congress.
While President-Elect Trump has made a couple of statements in support of TikTok, these might turn out to only be statements. The bipartisan ban legislation was originally introduced by Senator Marco Rubio, who has been nominated as Secretary of State in the new administration, a role that would make him the face of a lot of China policy.
What now?
A ban if implemented, will not immediately break TikTok since the app will continue to work, but it will begin a somewhat rapid death spiral as new downloads immediately cease. Users can still sideload apps outside the guardrails of app stores, but only a tiny percentage of people know how to do that.
While being removed from the app stores does not break the app for existing users, TikTok will be unable to push updates, eventually making the app more complicated to use. As the app downloads halt, advertisers will begin to depart the platform as budgets are reallocated away from TikTok. Once this happens, the real death spiral will start.
The ban doesn't prevent desktop access to TikTok as long as the website is hosted outside of the US, which it is, but TikTok’s magnetic pull is their mobile app capabilities. Also, without a downloaded app, their data collection is vastly restricted.
TikTok did not take any action other than the court system
ByteDance/TikTok have exhausted nearly all of their legal options. At this point, the reality that they did not try to sell themselves to another company before the ban went into effect, in my opinion, shows that there might be some truth to the matter of them being controlled by the Chinese Communist Party.
Governments are willing to give up billion-dollar companies and tools when they no longer serve their purpose, while companies with shareholders (public or private) would never intentionally do so.
Let’s look at how we got here.
2019
November: The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, known as CFIUS, launches an investigation into TikTok's acquisition of Musical.ly, focusing on potential national security risks. (read more here)
2020
August: President Trump issues executive orders to ban TikTok and WeChat, citing national security concerns. These orders faced legal challenges and were ultimately blocked by courts. At this time, there were serious concerns that TikTok would be banned, and a handful of bids were made to purchase TikTok.
2021
June: President Biden revokes Trump's executive orders and directs the Commerce Department to review security concerns related to foreign-owned apps, including TikTok.
2022
December: Congress passes legislation banning TikTok from government devices.
2023
February: Bills are introduced in Congress to address data security concerns and potentially ban TikTok nationwide.
March: The bill “Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act” was advanced by the House Energy and Commerce Committee with unanimous approval.
March: The House of Representatives passes a bill granting the President authority to ban apps that pose national security risks, explicitly targeting TikTok if ByteDance doesn’t sell divest within 6 months.
April: The Senate passes the bill but extends the deadline until January 19th of 2025.
All year, State-Level Bans: Multiple states begin implementing their bans on TikTok for government devices and networks.
2024
April: President Biden signs the bill above which sets the stage for a nationwide ban of TikTok if ByteDance doesn't sell the app.
May: TikTok sues the US government to block the law.
September: TikTok appeals to the federal appeals court citing free speech.
December 9th: The US Court of Appeals upholds the law, officially denying TikTok's previous challenge of the ban.
December 9th: TikTok files an emergency injunction on the ban and appeals to the Supreme Court.
December 13th: The injunction is rejected by the US court of Appeals.
December 16th: The CEO of TikTok met with Donald Trump in Mar-A-Lago.
December 18th: The Supreme Court agrees to hear the case over the TikTok ban, and arguments have been scheduled for January 10th.
December 22nd: President-Elect Trump says in a press conference that it could be worth keeping TikTok in the market for “a little while.”
Facts to consider:
American social media apps are banned in China, including Facebook, Snapchat, X, Whatsapp and all similarly popular apps
TikTok has been banned in India since June 2020 and in many other countries.
Many companies, schools, and governments have already banned TikTok, and even if there isn’t a wholesale ban, local governments and institutions will continue to challenge it legally.
Places where TikTok is banned on state devices
Pro-ban arguments:
National security: The primary concern is that TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, is subject to Chinese laws that could compel it to share user data with the Chinese government. This control by an economic foe of the US raises fears of potential espionage, surveillance, and the collection of sensitive personal information on American citizens.
Data collection: TikTok collects a vast amount of user data, including browsing history, location information, and even biometric data. While this data could be used for targeted advertising, it can also be used for more nefarious purposes, such as identifying government officials or building profiles on targeted individuals for intelligence purposes.
Content manipulation: There are concerns that the Chinese government could use TikTok to spread propaganda and manipulate public opinion in ways that support the Chinese government’s agenda. The app's “for you” algorithm, which determines what content users see, could be used to promote pro-China narratives or suppress dissenting voices. While a US social media app could also do something similar (X when it was Twitter has been accused of doing the same thing), there is a greater fear when this tool is in the hands of an adversary.
Influence operations: TikTok's massive reach, especially among young people, makes it a potential tool for influence operations. The Chinese government could use the platform to spread disinformation, sow discord, or interfere in elections. They have been accused of this already in Romania where TikTok was allegedly used for election interference.
Anti-ban arguments:
First Amendment: A ban on TikTok raises concerns about freedom of speech and the right to access information. Many argue that it sets a dangerous precedent for government censorship of online platforms. To that end, the ACLU joined TikTok in protesting the ban.
Economic: A ban could negatively affect small businesses that derive income from their visibility. While YouTube and Instagram might fill the overall gap in the market if TikTok were to exit, the small businesses currently popular on TikTok would still have to start all over.
Inconsistency: Critics point out that other social media platforms, especially those based in the U.S., also collect vast amounts of user data and have faced criticism for their data privacy practices. Singling out TikTok for a ban is seen as inconsistent and protectionist. This targeted act could lead to retaliation by China.
We likely won’t know whether this ban will go into effect until the actual day of January 19th. Still, even if President-elect Trump decides not to enforce it, it might remain in place until midday on January 20th, when Trump is inaugurated.
If this happens as I believe it will, this could be the greatest gift ever for Instagram/Meta and YouTube/Google. Additionally, if TikTok is forced out of the US, we can expect other countries and regions to follow with their own actions against TikTok. (Canada has banned their offices, but not the app.)
What do you think will happen? Will TikTok exit the US?
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What do the colors mean ("Places where TikTok is banned on state devices") on the map?